The NHL has announced its nominees for all major regular season awards, and perhaps the most discussed one will be the Hart trophy. Often the focus of trophy debate, the Hart goes to the player deemed to be the most valuable to his team. This year is one of the closest races we've seen in recent memory, and a serious case can be made for each of the three eligible players. You guessed it, that's what I'm going to try to do now.
The Case for Leon Draisaitl
The most frequent knock to the candidacy of Oilers Forward Leon Draisaitl is his play time with all-world talent Connor McDavid. And, as it turns out, the most common forward line used by the Oilers this season did feature Draisaitl on McDavid's wing. However, this line combination with Zack Kassian only accounted for 13% of all line combinations used throughout the season. Towards the end of the season, coach Dave Tippett tried splitting his two superstars up, as the two only shared the ice for power plays in the last 10 games of the regular season. Now that the linemate dispute has been dealt with, Draisaitl's performance can't be discounted. He put up 43 goals and 110 points during the 71-game regular season. He led the league in points, points per game among those eligible, power-play points, and tied for the league lead in game-winning goals. McDavid was right on his tail with 97 points, but Draisaitl held his own, following up his breakout 50-goal season last year with another terrific display this year.
The Case for Nathan Mackinnon
If you ask me, Mackinnon has the best case to win the Hart. Does that mean he'll win? Probably not, considering the unpredictability of awards in recent years. Mackinnon plays for a very good, playoff-threat Avalanche team, and was in a league of his own when you look at the stats of his teammates. Mackinnon finished the season with 35 goals and 93 points, while no other Avs player recorded more than 50 points. He finished fifth in the league in scoring, and third in even-strength points, while leading the league in shots on goal for a second straight year. During the month of November, where he was named the NHL's second star of the month, Mackinnon recorded 10 goals and 25 points for his best month ever. To make a great month even better, he did all of this without his two usual all-star linemates in Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. Mackinnon was able to keep his usual production levels all season while playing with the likes of Andre Burakovsky, Joonas Donskoi, Vladislav Namestnikov, and others. This was a season to remember for the former Calder Trophy winner.
The Case for Artemi Panarin
Nobody is denying the fact that Panarin had an unbelievable season in his first year as a Ranger. When he signed in New York, expectations were very high given his lucrative contract, and the former Calder Trophy winner somehow found a way to exceed them. Panarin scored 32 times and recorded 95 points for the Rangers this season, while a ridiculous 71 of his points were scored at even-strength, leading the NHL. Panarin was also a +36, which puts him second in the NHL, and his 1.38 points per game sits third. Only recording 24 powerplay points, Panarin did most of his damage on a line featuring Ryan Strome and Jesper Fast, one that coach David Quinn rolled out 13.2% of the time this year. So while some might look at the Rangers scoring leaders and see teammate Mika Zibanejad with 75 points, it's important to remember that these two shared the ice less than 3% of the time at even strength, leaving Panarin to do most of the work himself. The only true knock to Panarin is his team's performance, which he can't be entirely held accountable for, especially with his forward-leading +/- ranking. But, even with his terrific performance this season, his team wouldn't have made the playoffs if it wasn't for the obscure return to play playoff format. Regardless of team standing, Panarin has a strong case to bring home the hardware.
The Consensus
This is undoubtedly one of the closest Hart races we've seen in the past few years. While most fans assume Draisaitl is a lock due to his ridiculous point total, I actually might have him ranked third here after a little bit of research. Panarin's work at even strength and Mackinnon's ability to do most of it himself put them higher than Draisaitl in my book. I look at it this way, of the three players nominated, Draisaitl's departure would do the least damage to his franchise overall. I think Mackinnon and Panarin, this year especially, are extremely valuable to their franchises and these teams would not be the same without their stars. With that being said, even with Panarin's performance this year, the Rangers wouldn't be a playoff team in any other year with the exception of this year's bizarre playoff restart. Weighing all these factors leads me to giving the upper hand to Mackinnon, who was able to lead the Avalanche to the playoffs and did so with minimal support. The award could very well go to any of these three players, and I wouldn't have a problem either way, but if I was in charge (and I'm not for good reason), Nate would get the hardware.
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